+55 11 3041 5135

The world commercial aviation fleet will expand 33% by 2033

The worldwide commercial aviation fleet will expand 33% to more than 36,000 aircraft by 2033 – a 2.9% annual growth rate – according to Oliver Wyman’s Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast. Today, the fleet numbers nearly 27,400, slightly below its size in January 2020, the last month before COVID-19 upended the economy and everyday life around the world. The global aftermarket, which provides maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services to keep the fleet flying, is also expected to grow a further 22% this year, reaching USD 94 MM – just 2% below its 2019 peak. 2033 will reach USD 125 MM – an annual growth rate of 2.9%. In 2022, MRO demand expanded by 18%. Meanwhile, the consultancy forecasts a record number of aircraft deliveries over the next 10 years, despite current supply chain constraints that could make it difficult to meet this year’s targets. And despite rising airfares and a year of delays and cancelations in many of the world’s biggest markets, travelers seem relentless. In December, global passenger traffic – domestic and international combined – reached 82% of the 2019 total. It is the highest level since the pandemic. Labor shortages contribute to the supply chain tangles that once led to longer parts lead times – sometimes more than a year. And pressure on supplier capacity is likely to multiply as Airbus and Boeing, the world’s largest aircraft makers, begin to implement planned targets for higher production, which would be difficult to achieve even if supply chains were working well. Some of its biggest suppliers have publicly suggested that the increased production may be beyond what they and the rest of the supply chain can handle, but the increase in production is just a reflection of rising demand for aircraft. The other challenge is insufficient production capacity for sustainable jet fuel, the most immediate tool for reducing emissions. SAF, which emits 50% to 80% less emissions than conventional jet fuel, is currently an expensive substitute. Based on calculations, the best-case scenario for a 2030 supply capacity is 5.4 billion gallons, when the industry would require 16 billion just to keep airline emissions at 2019 levels. While the demand for air travel is there, the ability to meet it may not always be there — a challenge the industry cannot ignore. But for now, aviation is on a growth trajectory. – https://aeroin.net/a-frota-mundial-de-aviacao-comercial-expandira-33-aeronaves-ate-2033-oliver-wyman/